McCarthy’s path to the speakership was rocky even before he secured the top post. Facing staunch opposition from far-right members of his own party, he suffered 15 rounds of voting before being elected the GOP leader.

In order to convince enough of his holdouts to flip their votes and support him, McCarthy agreed that the Republican House wouldn’t move to lift the debt ceiling without corresponding cuts in government spending.

Now, two weeks later, that undertaking has befallen him.

On Thursday, the United States hit its debt limit, raising economic fears and setting up lawmakers for what will likely be an aggressive congressional fight over whether the ceiling should be raised or suspended. Because the federal government has reached its cap on the amount of money it can borrow to meet its obligations, it will be up to Congress to lift the ceiling.

McCarthy has urged President Joe Biden to come to the table, but the White House and congressional Democrats say they are strictly opposed to any negotiations that involve spending cuts.

At the same time, the new Speaker has a “substantial” number of members who are willing to “blow things up…even though it will cost trillions to the economy,” James Thurber, the founder of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University, told Newsweek.

The fight over the debt limit is headed to political brinkmanship and thus, McCarthy is facing a dilemma: He could rely on the Democrats to pass an extension to avert a financial crisis, and face fierce criticisms from his Republican colleagues. Or he can take the country to the edge of a government shutdown, and suffer blowback from the American people.

“The record of the past three decades is clear: when a congressional party triggers a shutdown or gets too close to the default cliff, it takes a hit in public opinion,” John Pitney, a Claremont McKenna College professor and former acting director of the Republican National Committee’s research department, told Newsweek. “It’s the congressional version of the Kobayashi Maru—and Speaker McCarthy is no Captain Kirk.”

House Democrats recognize that McCarthy is put between a rock and a hard place, and after watching the humiliation the GOP endured over the Speaker vote, it’s unlikely they’ll rush to help McCarthy find a solution.

“Democrats believe McCarthy can’t control his own caucus and is stuck between two bad outcomes,” political scientist Steve Schier told Newsweek. “At this point, the Democrats seem to understand McCarthy’s problem pretty well. They have zero motivation to help him out of this difficult situation.”

As one senior Democratic aide told Politico: “What possible way could this get done in a clean way that allows [McCarthy] to save face? The problem is just that none of us want him to save face.”

Experts told Newsweek the challenge of the debt limit will likely make the case that McCarthy is a weak leader unable to control his caucus, and in turn increase a favorable view of the Democrats.

“In the wake of a contentious battle for the Speaker’s gavel, the optics of failing to reach a deal on something as critical to our economy as the debt limit feeds the narrative that House Republicans are ungovernable and as such can not govern,” Ian Ostrander, an associate professor at Michigan State University, said. “This will help Democrats in their 2024 messaging.”

Ostrander told Newsweek that another failure for McCarthy this early in his speakership could set the tone for the rest of his tenure.

“If failures compound over time, he will be viewed as ineffective and his support may erode,” he said. “Speaker McCarthy has a tough needle to thread between appeasing his co-partisans while also ensuring that we don’t fall into a debt crisis.”

Ostrander added that resistance to debt limit talks could also be an “opening move in a longer game” for Democrats who want to score a better deal when McCarthy becomes desperate to avoid a catastrophe.

Newsweek reached out to Speaker McCarthy for comment.