Kentucky Vs. Lsu Betting Preview And Pick Vegas Still Not Impressed By Wildcats

The Line: LSU -10, Total: 53

Line movement: The line opened at LSU -11 at The Wynn on Sunday, but that number was snapped up, and the spread bounced between 10 and 10.5 for most of the week (9.5s have appeared as well). For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall, but 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. Kentucky is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 conference games. …The OVER is 4-2 in Kentucky’s last six road games.

LSU is 2-5 ATS in its last seven conference games. …The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Kentucky, but 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Wildcats.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

When these teams last met, in October 2011, the Tigers slashed the Wildcats, 35-7. However, they didn’t cover as 29.5-point home favorites, and the game stayed UNDER the posted 46.5-point total.

Cats continue to climb: One of the biggest surprises so far this season has been the Mark Stoops-led Kentucky team that is 5-1 for the eighth time in the program’s history and the first time since 2007. That year, the Wildcats extended their record to 6-1 after a triple-overtime victory against LSU (43-37). The Wildcats haven’t ranked in the AP Top 25 since then, and are obviously a big underdog to continue their climb this weekend.

The Wildcats rallied from a 14-3 deficit and put up 45 unanswered points to top ULM.

Their only loss was in overtime at Florida, and their last two SEC matchups have been wins against Vanderbilt (17-7 as 17-point home favorites) and South Carolina (45-38 as 4.5-point home dogs). A win against LSU would likely propel the Wildcats into the Top 25.

Tigers face must-win situation: After a troubling start to the season, LSU (5-2 SU and ATS) dodged its first 0-3 SEC start since 1999 with a last-minute 30-27 victory at Florida as 1.5-point favorites.

The Tigers’ stout defense held the Gators to 306 yards. The offense, on the other hand, had its struggles. Quarterback Anthony Jennings had a less-than-productive game, finishing 10-of-21 for 110 yards and one touchdown. Running back Leonard Fournette, however, rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns. The Tigers will have to keep that running game alive, as Kentucky’s pass defense ranks fourth in the conference with under 200 yards allowed per game.

LSU has already suffered two SEC losses to Mississippi State (34-29 as 9.5-point home favorites) and Auburn (41-7 as 8-point road dogs). The Tigers, who have remained unbeaten at home against Kentucky since 1998, certainly can’t afford another conference loss.

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Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | UK team page | LSU team page

The Linemakers’ lean: Kentucky may be 5-1, but the Wildcats are ranked just 57th in our power ratings, so we’re not too excited about them in this spot against No. 18 LSU. Kentucky is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 on the road, and 5-14 ATS its last 19 in conference. Were this not a sandwich game for the Tigers, we’d be all over them here. Instead, we’ll make a small play on the OVER, as look-ahead spots (both teams have Mississippi schools up next) often mean unfocused defenses. Kentucky can put up points, and LSU always has an athletic group. OVER is the lean.