Kentucky star PJ Washington missed the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament with a sprained foot, and his status will be monitored closely throughout the week. John Calipari is trying to lead the Wildcats to a fifth Final Four appearance in the last 10 seasons. Kelvin Sampson has Houston back in the limelight for the first time since the Phi Slama Jama days. This is their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1984.
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Here’s more on what should be a physical Sweet 16 matchup in the Midwest Region:
No. 2 Kentucky
No. 3 Houston
Best individual matchup
Corey Davis Jr. vs. Tyler Herro. If that is what Kentucky decides to do. Herro shut down Wofford’s Fletcher Magee last week in the second round, helping hold him to 0-of-12 shooting from 3. Davis presents a different challenge, and Kentucky could rotate defenders on Houston’s leading scorer. Herro also led Kentucky in 3-pointers made this season. If Washington can’t play, Herro needs to have a good shooting night for the Wildcats.
MORE SWEET 16 PREVIEWSUNC-AUB | MSU-LSU | ZAGS-FSU | UVA-UO | PURDUE-UT | UM-TT | DUKE-VT
Most eye-popping stat
The Cougars lead the nation in defensive shooting percentage. Opponents hit just 36.6 percent of their shots against the Cougars. Kentucky shot 25.9 percent from 3-point range in the first weekend. If Washington can’t go (and even if he can), the Wildcats must have great spacing and better shot selection if they are going to attack a long defense.
Kentucky wins if …
Kentucky can play defense, too. Opponents shoot just 40 percent against the Wildcats. The rebounding battle will be tight. If Kentucky can get out in transition with Hagans for easy baskets, and if Reid Travis matches Brooks inside, the Wildcats will be in position to win late in the game.
Houston wins if …
They are good enough from 3-point range. That is the common thread in their three losses, the most recent against Cincinnati in the AAC championship game. Houston was 8 of 33 in that loss and relied too much on that shot. Look for Davis to attack off the drive to get Kentucky into foul trouble. The Cougars can win this game with that formula, especially if Washington is out.
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Sweet 16 pick: Kentucky
It goes beyond Calipari’s 11-3 record in the Sweet 16. This is an opportunity for Keldon Johnson, who has hit double figures in five of Kentucky’s last seven games. When he stays out of foul trouble, the Wildcats are good. This will be a grinder game, and the Wildcats’ shot selection will be the focus. We think Kentucky gets enough in transition to advance to the Elite Eight.
