Lake, a Republican, is set to face off against Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs during the midterm elections on November 8. Arizona, one of the states most evenly divided by Democrats and Republicans, is home to several competitive races. Lake received Trump’s endorsement during the Republican primary and has tied herself to his style of politics, including his unfounded claims of widespread voter fraud during the 2020 election.
Meanwhile, Hobbs is seeking to portray Lake as an extremist who is out of line with Arizona, which narrowly backed President Joe Biden in 2020. If Hobbs wins, she would become the Grand Canyon State’s first Democratic governor in more than a decade.
Highly-watched Arizona races—also including the Senate race when Trump-backed Blake Masters is set to challenge Democratic Senator Mark Kelly—could also serve as a test of Trump’s popularity in the battleground state ahead of a potential 2024 presidential run.
Recent polls indicate that Hobbs and Lake have a chance at winning, with the race emerging as one of the most competitive across the country. Hobbs currently leads Lake by an average of 0.4 percentage points, according to an aggregate of recent polling from FiveThirtyEight.
The most recent public polling on the race is a September 30 to October 4 YouGov/CBS News poll that surveyed 1,164 likely voters. The poll carried a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. It found Hobbs and Lake locked in an even race, with both candidates receiving the support of 49 percent of respondents.
Arizona voters listed the economy, inflation and abortion as the three issues that matter most to them. Republicans have sought to use high inflation, gas prices and other economic hardships to tie Biden, whose popularity floundered over the summer, to Democratic candidates in key races. Meanwhile, Democrats have cast Republicans as holding extreme views opposing abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.
The poll found that voters overwhelmingly view Hobbs as the candidate who would protect abortion access, but see Lake as a stronger candidate on border security.
Meanwhile, other polls have also found close results.
A September 26 to October 2 SSRS/CNN poll that surveyed 795 likely voters found Hobbs with a 3-point lead over Lake. The poll had a margin of error of 4.6 points. It found Hobbs receiving the support of 49 percent of likely voters, while Lake received 46 percent support.
A September 22 to 26 Fox News poll surveyed 1,088 registered voters and found Hobbs leading Lake by only a single point. Hobbs received 44 percent of support, while 43 percent of respondents said they would vote for Lake. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Mark Kelly Leads Trump-Backed Blake Masters in Senate Race
Meanwhile, Democrats appear favored to hold onto Arizona’s Senate seat. Kelly, elected in 2020 to serve the remainder of the late Senator John McCain’s term, leads Masters by 6 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate. His lead, however, has narrowed since mid-August, when he led by more than 10 points.
The CBS/YouGov poll found Kelly with a 3-point advantage, and the CNN/SSRS poll found him winning likely voters by 6 percentage points. Fox News’ poll found him winning registered voters by 6 percentage points, as well.
Arizona’s Senate race could help determine which party wins control of the Senate. Democrats are optimistic that, despite a national environment favoring Republicans, they will retain control of the Senate. Republicans continue focusing in on a handful of key races to flip Congress’ upper chamber. Other key Senate races include Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Newsweek reached out to the Hobbs and Lake campaigns for comment.
