Republican Kari Lake, a former local news anchor who has been endorsed by previous president Donald Trump, is said to be ahead with 48.9 percent of voters backing her. Her Democratic rival, Katie Hobbs, sits on 46.4 percent, before polling starts on Tuesday.
The most up-to-date statistics were revealed by opinion poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight on November 4, which has been creating aggregate polls with data from various surveys.
The website says that, on May 16, it was Hobbs who was out in front, polling 51.8 percent compared to Lake’s 46.8 percent. The Democrat’s lead gradually narrowed, but she kept it throughout the year until October 11, when Lake become the frontrunner, albeit narrowly.
By Halloween, Lake polled 48.7 percent, while Hobbs had 46 percent, and on November 3, FiveThirtyEight had Lake on 48.7 percent, with Hobbs registering 46.2 percent.
A Co/efficient poll of 1,111 likely voters from October 20 to 21 gave Lake a 4-point lead over her opponent, with 49 percent of respondents planning to vote for her, while 45 percent said they would vote for Hobbs. The poll has a margin of error of 3.09 percentage points.
A Fox News poll, conducted on November 2, put Lake ahead by 3 percentage points, with 51 percent compared to Hobbs’ 48 percent. Roughly 1 percent of voters said they were either undecided or had no opinion.
Newsweek reached out to campaign staff for both candidates for comment on the various polls’ findings.
Hobbs’ campaign communications director Sarah Robinson told Newsweek: “Every poll shows that this race is a dead heat. We’re seeing great energy and momentum on the campaign trail, and our message of lower costs, protecting fundamental freedoms, and defending our democracy are resonating with Democrats, Republicans and independent voters. We’re confident that Arizonans will make their voices heard and vote for sanity over chaos.”
Despite Lake’s increasing popularity over the past few weeks, she has proved to be a controversial candidate after falsely claiming Trump was cheated out of the White House because the last election was “rigged” and “corrupt.”
The Republican also appeared to make light of the attack on October 28 by a hammer-wielding intruder against Democrat Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, which left the 82-year-old hospitalized with a fractured skull.
Trump has publicly backed Lake, writing on Truth Social: “Arizona finally has a chance to have a GREAT Governor. Vote for Kari Lake - She has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”
Lake’s rival in the race to win the governor’s position, Arizona’s Secretary of State Hobbs, worked as a social worker for many years. Former Democratic president Barack Obama has thrown his support behind her, appearing with her at a rally in Phoenix on Wednesday.
The governor’s electoral race has been bitterly fought on both sides. Lake inaccurately claimed that Hobbs was a “twice-convicted racist,” apparently in reference to lawsuits brought against the Arizona State Senate, not Hobbs personally.
On Wednesday, Hobbs told an audience, “Send Kari Lake back to whatever dark corner of the internet she came from.”
Tensions are running high in the state, and there are fears there have been politically-motivated attacks against each of the candidate’s campaign offices.
Lake was forced to close hers on Sunday, after packages containing suspicious white powder were sent there. Initial reports said that FBI agents in hazmat suits were dispatched to the scene at 40th Street and Camelback Road.
Campaign spokesperson Colton Duncan told CNN that a staffer was forced to undergo “medical supervision” after making the discovery while opening the mail. Phoenix Police Department have confirmed their own officers are investigating, according to Fox News.
Hobbs condemned the incident and released a statement that read: “Political violence, threats, or intimidation have no place in our democracy. I strongly condemn this threatening behavior directed at Lake and her staff.”
The incident came after Hobbs’ own election headquarters in Arizona was the target of a break-in, with the burglary on October 25 sparking Watergate comparisons. Hobbs’ campaign manager has blamed Lake and her allies for “spreading dangerous misinformation and inciting threats against anyone they see fit.” Meanwhile, Lake suggested the crime had been staged. A 36-year-old man was later arrested on a single count of third-degree burglary, and NBC reported there did not appear to be evidence that the break-in was politically motivated.
Lake and Hobbs are both hoping to replace outgoing GOP Governor Doug Ducey in a race that has become one of the most hotly contested seats across the country.
Update 11/8/22 2:21 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Hobbs’ campaign.
