The Chiefs have a bad history in this moment, and the Texans have already won in Kansas City this season.

The Chiefs (12-4) will host the Texans (11-6) on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. Before the Chiefs can write off the Texans as an underling who’s traveling to Missouri as an underdog, here are things to consider about the AFC South champion Texans:

The Texans defeated a good Buffalo Bills squad in last weekend’s wild-card roundThe AFC South went 2-0 in wild-card weekend after the Titans beat the Patriots on the roadThe Texans defeated the Chiefs, 31-24, on October 13 at Arrowhead StadiumThe Texans defense is back to full strength with the return of defensive end J. J. Watt

Then there are the odds. The Chiefs not only have a short history of losing at home in the playoffs as a team favored to win, they have a long past, according to the Kansas City Star and sportsoddshistory.com.

The last three Chiefs home playoff games had the home team favored, only to see the Chiefs lose. Here’s a quick recap:

2019 — New England defeated Kansas City (-3), 37-31, in overtime of the AFC Championship2018 — Tennessee defeated Kansas City (-8. 5), 22-21, in the wild-card round2017 — Pittsburgh defeated Kansas City (-2. 5), 18-16, in the divisional round

In the betting world, it would make sense to choose the Texans over the Chiefs on Sunday. The Chiefs are almost a 10-point favorite entering Sunday’s game. There’s history in being such a heavy favorite, too. In 1995, the Chiefs were a 10 ½-point favorite to beat the Indianapolis Colts—pre-Peyton Manning. The Colts won, 10-7, in that divisional round game that was the worst loss (by odds) in team history.

The Chiefs were a pretty good bet when they played in the American Football League (AFL) before the AFL-NFL merger. They went 4-2 in the playoffs in that span, including Super Bowls. But since the merger, the Chiefs are a dismal 5-17 in playoff games.

Granted, this is a different Chiefs team with Patrick Mahommes at quarterback and a slew of weapons at his arsenal. The Chiefs have even bolstered their defense, and that makes defensive back Tyrann Mathieu excited.

“I’m excited to get on this stage, to be healthy, to have a clear mind, and ultimately have one goal and that’s to get to Miami and won the Super Bowl,” Mathieu told The Star. “We have a great opportunity.”

Then there is the fact the Chiefs are painting their end zones at Arrowhead in the old gold used in the past. Will that work? The winner of this game advances to the following weekend’s AFC Championship game to face the winner of Saturday night’s other divisional game between the Tennessee Titans at the Baltimore Ravens.