Europe is largely at peace. The Middle East is simmering, but it has been for years. In strategic terms, Asia is coming to the fore as the next big challenge, and it’s mainly due to China. China will become a superpower in the next 30 to 50 years. The U.S. is the only power that could guide China into a positive integration both regionally and globally. If that is handled badly, China could be the source of enormous problems due to the sheer size of its population, its economy and its military capabilities.
Every new U.S. administration comes into power thinking it can reinvent the wheel [on foreign policy]. And George W. Bush is no exception. But his early encounters with China–on the spy-plane controversy and weapons sales to Taiwan–show that he has to take a more realistic path, one that is less confrontational. I think Bush is realizing that the world is not flat, but round.
Bush has no illusions about China. The Clinton administration wanted to establish a strategic relationship with China, but that was impossible. Strategic relations require strong ideological ties, and those don’t exist. This new paradigm of cooperation and competition with China is more realistic. The challenge, of course, will be in not letting it tilt too far to the side of competition, because the impact would be devastating.
Bush is supported by the best dream team the U.S. has ever had. They have worked together before, and they have proven excellence on defense and security issues. My only worry is that, as cold-war warriors, they might tend to think in terms of the old relations with the Soviet Union. Asia is quite different, and it will require more flexibility.
Bush must recognize that Asia’s needs go beyond defense and security. Southeast Asia, and Indonesia in particular, needs an influx of aid and investment. And in places still struggling to establish a full-fledged democracy, Bush should work hard to support those elements of civil society–the press, nongovernmental organizations–that are the mainstay of the democratic process.
