Back in 2013, Manziel looked like a surefire NFL franchise quarterback-to-be after he torched Alabama’s highly touted defense for the second straight year. On that September day in College Station, Texas, in one of the most anticipated games of the year, Manziel threw for 557 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 98 yards in a 49-42 loss. This was after he had 345 yards of total offense in Texas A&M’s epic upset of the Crimson Tide the year before in Tuscaloosa, a victory and performance that fueled his winning of the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt freshman. 

But a lot of well-documented things happened as Manziel’s college days wound down and his NFL career began as the Browns’ second first-round pick (22nd overall) in 2014. He became an out-of-control, unmanageable mess who thought partying — regardless of the tabloid headlines that followed — was more important than his NFL career. He had come from a wealthy family, appeared spoiled and immature and got in trouble with the law (in a domestic violence incident with his girlfriend that recently was dismissed after Manziel abided by several court-ordered steps). He became the latest poster child for wasted potential. His own father stated publicly that he was worried his son “won’t live to see his 24th birthday” after Manziel refused to go to rehab in early 2016.

It has now been two years since Manziel played quarterback. Two lost years after being released by the Browns in March 2016 and since then considered untouchable by the NFL. He tried to join the CFL last fall before the league put the brakes on his return. Finally, he has been given the green light by CFL commissioner Randy Ambrosie to negotiate a contract with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and return to the field, but with a warning that his every move will be closely watched. 

Assuming the contract gets done (Hamilton confirmed Jan. 7 an offer has been made), the Manziel comeback story will begin in the upcoming CFL season. It will be fascinating to watch if he follows the paths of Warren Moon, Jeff Garcia and Doug Flutie and becomes a star and champion in the CFL and then returns to the NFL as an impact player, as Hamilton coach June Jones is predicting. 

MORE: Twenty notable NFL/CFL crossovers

“I think he’d be the best player to ever play up here,” Jones, who also has extensive NFL and college coaching experience, told CFL.ca in Decenber. “He can throw it and he can run it like nobody ever has been able to do.”   

Does Jones really believe that, or is he trying to instill confidence in his likely QB-to-be and make him feel good about signing with the Tiger-Cats, who hold his rights into January?  

The good news for those cheering for Manziel is that he just turned 25, so while it’s never good to be out of the game for an extended period, he should be able to get in sync and have a lot of productive years remaining. He stayed basically injury-free during his two years as A&M’s starter and during his two years in and out of the Browns’ lineup. And perhaps the best sign of his serious approach to this CFL opportunity is that he has stayed out of the media and has been low-profile lately (not tweeting since July and not in any camera-phone shots from late-night bar excursions that wind up in the media).   

If he gets in top shape and avoids substance abuse and legal issues, he’ll play in a league in which the game looks tailor-made for Manziel’s skill set of a strong arm, excellent mobility and playmaking ability when things break down. The league rules also can help him be a dominant player with the wider field (by 12 yards compared to the NFL) and more eligible receivers helping a mobile, creative QB such as Manziel. Also, three downs to pick up 10 yards leads to more of a quarterback-driven passing league than the NFL’s four-down model. 

I spoke with an, in all likelihood, soon-to-be opposing CFL head coach who said Manziel can be a star in the league with his skill set and with the league rules helping him. He also referenced Moon and Flutie in saying Manziel’s CFL play could very well lead to a second chance in the NFL. But this coach, who preferred not to be identified, added this obvious but strongly worded caveat: if he can keep his you know what together. 

And he, like the rest of the football world, questions if that can occur. 

Therein lies the biggest issue for Manziel to overcome. You can be sure that NFL general managers and player personnel directors will be closely monitoring his every move, on and off the field. I certainly would unless I had a young franchise quarterback. I think of Sean Payton as the type of coach who would covet a focused, productive and staying-out-of-trouble Manziel as the successor to Drew Brees and running the Saints’ high-powered offense in a few years.

MORE: Payton downplays meeting with Manziel

NFL folks remember Manziel’s incredible performances against Alabama. If he joins the CFL, they’ll be talking with their contacts and will ask their team video directors to hunt down some game tape if he gets good reviews. And they’ll ask their team security director to get the inside scoop on what Manziel is doing off the field — during the season and afterwards, when he returns to the U.S.  

If he’s a tremendous CFL player with a spotless record off the field, he will get another NFL opportunity. Before his downfall, there were plenty of Russell Wilson comparisons when GMs and scouts talked about Manziel.  

What a story that would be if Manziel is the next Moon (five-time Grey Cup champion and two-time CFL MVP in his six years in Edmonton before becoming a nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback in the NFL and a Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee in 2006). Or the next Flutie, who was run out of the NFL after five years and spent his next eight years in the CFL, winning three Grey Cups and six Most Outstanding Player awards before he returned to the NFL for eight more years, including a Pro Bowl season in 1998. Or a Garcia, who was a four-time NFL Pro Bowl quarterback after being a Grey Cup champ and four-time CFL All-Star. 

None of those three players had the off-field notoriety of Manziel during their college and early pro careers. Flutie won the Heisman Trophy in 1984, but he, like Moon and Garcia, wasn’t close to being a first-round pick (Moon and Garcia went undrafted and Flutie was an 11th-round choice). None of them entered pro football with the great expectations Manziel did. The CFL was their vehicle to prove themselves, whereas for Manziel, he needs to have consistent success in the CFL to rebuild the trust factor for NFL teams looking at him.  

Manziel must embrace the CFL as quite likely his last chance to resurrect his career. Any more missteps and no team will want to deal with him.  

If Manziel can’t stay on the right path or can’t recreate his college success, he’ll unfortunately join the Ryan Leafs of the football world as the classic and tragic underachievers who had the talent but not the wherewithal to realize their potential. Manziel would join players such as Vince Young, who sought out the CFL last summer in an attempt to rekindle his football career (he left Saskatchewan’s camp after injuring his hamstring).

It’s a long road ahead for Manziel. One step at a time, as they say. And the first step should be coming soon in Hamilton. Stay tuned.    

Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.