Only two years ago the warm afterglow of the Persian Gulf War made Major the most popular prime minister in 30 years. Economic problems and his own uncertain leadership soon took big bites out of his standing in the polls. On the night of his surprising victory in a national election 15 months ago, Major told aides that within a year he expected to be one of the most unpopular prime ministers in history. It would happen, he said, because of difficult unfinished business, including the fight against inflation and the effort to edge Britain into “the heart of Europe.”
Major overshot the mark, becoming the most unpopular prime minister since polling began (his current approval rating is 19 percent). The global recession and the intractable war in Bosnia added greatly to his burden, but much of the damage was self-inflicted. The Tories, who have ruled for 14 years now, looked like a party that had been in power too long. Even the good gray Major struck some as arrogant when he refused to submit the Maastricht Treaty on European unity to a British referendum. “He’s a touchy-feely guy who simply lost touch,” says MORI pollster Robert M. Worcester.
A group of 23 Tory M.P.s five more than the government’s majority in the House of Commons–hoped to scuttle Maastricht. The hottest issue turned out to be the “social chapter,” which would subject British industry to European regulation on working conditions and labor relations. Major wanted Britain to opt out of the chapter, a move opposed by the opposition Labor and Liberal Democratic parties. In a vote on the opt-out policy, the Tory rebels sided with the opposition, and Major was defeated. He had to snap the mavericks back into line with the confidence vote.
His victory may not last. Some right-wing rebels are muttering about an outright challenge to Major next November, which will be the third anniversary of the party coup that ousted Margaret Thatcher. The obvious candidates for the next Tory succession are Kenneth Clarke, the chancellor of the exchequer, who may be too much Major’s man; and Douglas Hurd, the foreign secretary, who suffers from dullness and seems to lack the stomach for political conspiracy. Standing a dismal third in the national polls, the Conservative Party is stuck in a leadership gridlock. “There are dozens of has-beens and will-never-bes who owe John Major nothing and can afford to stand on principle,” says Worcester. “But the problem with changing leaders is that it just creates more has-beens.”
The most hopeful omen for Major is that the British economy is finally showing strong signs of life, with unemployment down, exports up and inflation at a 30-year low. Parliament “rises” this week for a two-month holiday. By the time the M.P.s return, last week’s vote of confidence will look in retrospect like the start of Major’s comeback–or the beginning of his end.
