Democratic Lt. Governor John Fetterman is facing Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in a close contest that could decide control of the Senate. The race has seen President Joe Biden and former presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama all campaigning in the state.
Odds and polling point to a tight result as Oz has gained on Fetterman in recent weeks, but the race could come down to the wire as they compete to succeed retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey.
Betting site Oddschecker gives an indication of how close the election could be. It shows that the punters appear to favor Oz, who is endorsed by Trump.
Sixty-one percent of bets have been placed on Oz at odds of 4/6, while 39 percent of bets have been placed on Fetterman at odds of 6/4, according to figures from Oddschecker.
Betfair, which operates the world’s largest online betting exchange, is offering odds on the Pennsylvania race that also suggest the outcome will be close.
The bookmakers give odds of 8/13 on Republicans to win the open Senate and 6/5 on Democrats to triumph, while Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is offering the same odds on Oz and Fetterman, respectively.
The odds suggest bettors are approaching the race with caution as polls show a real possibility that the result will come down to the wire.
Polling in the closing days of the midterm elections also shows a close race in Pennsylvania, with the Trump-endorsed Republican making notable gains in recent weeks.
The graph below shows average polling in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
A Targoz Market Research poll conducted among 631 likely voters from November 2 to 6 showed Oz leading with 51 percent to Fetterman’s 46 percent, while a Research Co. poll conducted from November 4 to 6 among 450 likely voters showed Fetterman with 49 percent support to Oz’s 48 percent.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia (UVA) Center for Politics forecasts that the Pennsylvania Senate race leans Republican, while RealClearPolitics projects that Oz will win the race.
Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight’s final polling analysis rates Oz as slightly favored to win the race and gives him a 57 percent chance of victory, compared to 43 percent for Fetterman.
That marks a significant change over the course of the campaign, which previously saw Fetterman with a substantial lead over Oz in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis.
The Democrat had an 83 percent chance of winning the seat as of September 13 before Oz began to slowly close the gap. FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast described Pennsylvania as a “toss-up.”
Do you have a tip on a politics story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the midterm elections? Let us know via politics@newsweek.com.