With one day before the November 8 polls open, U.K-based betting company Betfair is declaring Oz the favorite for the Senate seat, giving the Donald Trump-endorsed candidate odds of 5/8, or nearly 62 percent chance of winning.
“Donald Trump, Barack Obama and Joe Biden were all campaigning in Pennsylvania over the weekend, signaling the importance of the state in this week’s senate race,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek. “On Betfair Exchange, the Republicans are the 5/8 favorites to win the Pennsylvania seat, with the Democrats trailing behind at 11/8.”
Fetterman is falling behind Oz in the polls in the wake of the Democrat, who suffered a stroke in May, giving a faltering performance in the only televised debate for the Pennsylvania Senate election on October 25.
Since the debate, Oz has beaten Fetterman in five of the past six public polls, including the latest survey from Insider Advantage.
The InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 Philadelphia poll of 750 likely votes, published November 4, gave Oz a 2-point lead over Fetterman, 48 to 46 percent.
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said the race between Fetterman and Oz will be a “photo-finish,” with the GOP candidate gaining momentum after the televised debates.
“Oz has been in the lead in both of our post-debate surveys. Our post-debate survey showed respondents believing Oz won by some 30 percentage points,” Towery told FOX 29 Philadelphia. “But a large number of early votes were cast before the debate when Fetterman was leading in our surveys. Should Oz end up winning, it will be the one debate between the two candidates that will serve as the primary reason for a victory.”
One positive boost for Fetterman’s campaign could be the endorsement of Oprah Winfrey, according to Towery. Oz rose to fame as a health expert on The Oprah Winfrey Show before getting his own talk show in 2009, which was produced by Winfrey’s Harpo Productions company.
“It was Winfrey’s appearance on behalf of Barack Obama in the 2008 South Carolina Presidential Primary that put Obama on a path to winning the presidency that year,” Towery added.
U.K. betting site OddsChecker also found that Oz is the favorite for the Senate seat on Tuesday, giving the Republican a 64 percent chance of victory with Fetterman at 21 percent.
Kyle Newman, a PR associate at OddsChecker, said that Oz was given just a 26.7 percent chance to win the race at the start of October, with the significant flip in odds as a result of post-debate betting.
“Since the debate, 73.2 percent of bets have been placed on Oz, while 26.8 percent have been placed on Fetterman,” Newman said. “Over the seven days prior, from October 17-24, Oz had seen just 52.1 percent of bets compared to Fetterman’s 47.9 percent. Meaning, Oz has seen a 21.1 percent increase in bets placed on him since the debate.”
According to FiveThirtyEight’s national poll average, Fetterman is leading by just 0.4 percent (46.8 percent to 46.2). The polling website also lists the race as a “dead heat,” with Fetterman having a 54 percent chance of victory and Oz a 46 percent chance.
A separate national poll average collected by Real Clear Politics shows the race is essentially tied, with Oz marginally ahead 47 percent to 46.9 percent.