The State of the Union comes at a time of extreme international tension as Biden and his Western allies are embroiled in efforts to curtail the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while back home the Democrats are also keeping an eye on this year’s midterm elections.
Biden’s address on Tuesday will be the latest time a president has delivered his State of the Union speech. The address was delayed due to the unusually busy legislative calendar, the U.S.’s participation in the Winter Olympic games and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The State of the Union address traditionally gives the sitting president the opportunity to compile a highlight reel of their administration over the past year, providing examples of how they have worked to help improve the nation.
The Biden administration’s freshman year has had its share of accomplishments. However, Biden will be walking into Congress on thin ice as the president is struggling in the polls–and has been for a considerable time.
At the time of writing, the president’s approval rating sits at 40.7 percent– and has been hovering around the low 40s roughly since October– while his disapproval rating stands at 53.3 percent, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight which combines findings from a vast number of polls.
His support has also dipped within his own camp, as it has fallen from 98 percent at the time of his inauguration, to 78 percent earlier this month. Independents have also lost faith in the Commander-in-Chief, as only 35 percent approve of him compared to 61 percent last January, according to Gallup figures.
As Biden’s popularity slumps, he faces four major headaches that could define his administration.
Ukraine Crisis
As Biden takes to Congress to deliver his maiden State of the Union address, much of the world and the U.S.’ attention will be firmly set on Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has orchestrated the invasion of neighboring Ukraine in a bid to absorb it into Russian rule and has consequently sparked a military conflict.
Western forces have reacted to the Russian invasion, and have imposed economic sanctions, cut off travel, dissolved business partnerships, and barred the country from sporting and cultural events in a bid to deter Putin.
However, Biden has received criticism back home for his approach to the conflict, with many demanding stronger action from the Commander-in-Chief.
Both Democrats and Republicans have been calling on the president to impose the strongest sanctions possible on Russia, claiming the current ones do not deliver enough of a blow to Putin’s ambitions.
The president and his Western allies have been criticized for sparing Russia’s crucial energy sector from sanctions. In 2021, oil and gas revenues made up over 30 percent of Russian gross domestic product, and in 2019 they accounted for over 60 percent of Russian exports.
Russia is the world’s leading natural gas exporter and provides Europe with almost 40 percent of its gas supplies.
Criticism has also been levelled at Biden for failing to unify fellow NATO member states in order to prevent the invasion from taking place.
Former national security adviser John Bolton spoke out against Biden’s chosen course of action. Writing in the British newspaper The Telegraph, Bolton was heavily critical:
“It may be that Biden was never confident Putin could be deterred, certainly not by threats alone. In that case, unless Biden was prepared to accept the inevitable devastation that an invasion of Ukraine would cause, he should have spared no effort to develop additional steps to prevent it. He did not, despite widespread, urgent advice that the sanctions he threatened were insufficient,” he wrote.
Stalled Build Back Better
The Biden administration has struggled to see its flagship piece of legislation, the Build Back Better Act, passed into law–despite the president’s initial commitment to pass the bill by Christmas.
The Act was originally designed to secure provisions and support for national infrastructure and social policies, with an initial budget of $3.5 trillion that was eventually slashed to $1.75 trillion.
The bill was passed by the House in November, but has been stalled in the Senate since, showing little signs of progressing into a reality.
Biden’s bill also lost support from pivotal Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, leaving the bill virtually dead in the water as it is reliant on the support of all 50 Democratic senators in order to move forward.
The president is still adamant to see Build Back Better passed into law, and pushed for the legislation to be approved in an emotional speech in Pittsburgh last month.
Student Debt Forgiveness
Biden has received regular criticism for his inability thus far to fulfill one of his campaign trail promises. Prior to his election, Biden vowed to forgive at least $10,000 of student loans per person.
The Delawarean Democrat has struggled to stand by his promise in his freshman year, though did introduce an interest-free pause on federal student loan repayments which is set to end in May.
Earlier this week, a group of lawmakers demanded more clarity from the Education Department on how the administration was hoping to address the issue, and urged more action from Biden’s team to tackle debt forgiveness.
Questions have risen over Biden’s authority to simply write off the debts, as he himself said last April: “I don’t think I have the authority”, which House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also stated.
Some sectors of the Democrat camp fear the return to debt payments in May could anger their voter base, further weakening the party’s position going into November’s midterm elections.
Record Inflation
The Biden administration has also been burdened with significant economic woes, namely the highest inflation rates in 40 years.
National inflation levels hit 7.5 percent in January, which has continued to raise prices of household goods and services such as food, gas, and housing.
Additionally, gas and energy prices are expected to surge in coming months as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and consequent sanctions.
Speaking earlier this week, Vice President Kamala Harris warned that the conflict would equate to a surge in prices back home.
“When America stands for principles, and all of the things that we hold dear, it requires sometimes for us to put ourselves out there in a way that maybe we will incur some cost. In this situation, that may relate to energy costs,” Harris said.
Nonetheless, Biden has repeatedly claimed that soaring prices are “transitory,” and mainly a consequence of increased expenses brought about by the pandemic.
The president remains confident that his administration will be able to overcome the economic challenge, and earlier this week said he was seeing “signs that we will make it through this challenge”.
“While today’s report is elevated, forecasters continue to project inflation easing substantially by the end of 2022,” Biden said.
