Biden is favored to win over President Donald Trump—75-25—in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, according to an election simulator maintained by FiveThirtyEight. Fifty-four percent of the forecast is based on polls and 46 percent relied on other factors, including previous voting patterns and demographics of the region.
Biden’s poised to win the popular vote in the district, according to the stimulator, with 51.6 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 47 percent.
A recent Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) PAC poll showed Biden 11 points ahead of Trump, with 53 percent of support among likely voters in the district compared to the president’s 42 percent. Siena College/The New York Times’ latest poll, released last week, also had Biden leading Trump 48-41.
Former President Barack Obama narrowly won the red district in 2008, but lost it to GOP candidate Mitt Romney in 2012. Four years later, Trump extended the Republicans’ reign over the district after winning the area by two points over then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
Despite carrying only one electoral vote, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district could play an outsized role in what’s expected to be a tight race between Trump and Biden on November 3. Electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the popular vote in most states, but the methodology is different in Nebraska and Maine. In these two states, one electoral vote is given to the popular vote winner in every congressional district in addition to the two electoral votes for whoever wins the state’s popular vote.
States such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have been getting all the attention, but the election’s ultimate outcome could be decided by smaller prizes, such as Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district and Maine’s 2nd congressional district.
Democratic candidate Al Gore would have won over former president George W. Bush in 2000 if he had won the four electoral college votes in New Hampshire. Polling averages indicate a similarly close race this year.
In an overwhelmingly GOP state, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district includes Douglas County—Omaha—and the suburban areas in the western section of Sarpy County. The area is a potential vulnerability for Trump, who won the district in 2016 by an even smaller margin than some key battleground states. Biden also has an advantage among white and well-educated Americans, the district’s main demographics.
Newsweek reached out to Trump and Biden’s campaigns for comment.
